Could the conservatives image make polls difficult?

[budda]

The Conservatives are getting a bit of a bashing for being potentially racist or whatever, could this make people less likely to say they will vote for them when asked?

Could there be lots of slightly embarressed Conservative voters out there?

Are they really reaching out to the 'silent majority'?

[klintock]

Could be something in that. Sad to say the average factory worker is usually a racist, homophobic (although hating would be nearer the mark) and not that likely to be asked their opinion. Middle class folks are likely to lie about it I would say.

Sad to say most people are racist, even and some times especially the ones who would proclaim loudest they are not. They are the worst IME because of the backhanded qualifications they give to things.

[Aladdin]

The Conservatives are getting a bit of a bashing for being potentially racist or whatever, could this make people less likely to say they will vote for them when asked?

Could there be lots of slightly embarressed Conservative voters out there?

Are they really reaching out to the 'silent majority'? I'm pretty sure there are lots of conservatives out there, both big and small 'c', who are rather displeased if not completely appalled by Howard's campaign.

The effect such campaign is actually having is to make previously disenchanted Labour supporters change their minds about not voting for 'that bastard Blair' on this election. Because next to this Conservative Party, Blair looks like the dog's bollocks.

So for every person Howard's 'war' on gypsies and immigrants wins over for the Tories, it'd seem two or three people will come out and vote for Labour in order to stop the Tories getting in.

[Blagsta]

Could be something in that. Sad to say the average factory worker is usually a racist, homophobic (although hating would be nearer the mark) and not that likely to be asked their opinion. Middle class folks are likely to lie about it I would say.

More generalised bullshit.

[budda]

So for every person Howard's 'war' on gypsies and immigrants wins over for the Tories, it'd seem two or three people will come out and vote for Labour in order to stop the Tories getting in.

Maybe, I was just thinking really, no-one says in the polls that they will vote BNP but thousands do.

[klintock]

More generalised bullshit.

More one line, dissmissive comments from Blagsta. I was talking from my own experience.

Would you like to go to the nearest factory canteen and listen in?

[The_Grapes_of_Sloth]

More one line, dissmissive comments from Blagsta. I was talking from my own experience.

Then perhaps you should make it clear that it is merely in your experience when you state:

Sad to say most people are racist...

I don't find them so. I was quite surprised to find an openly racist taxi-driver the other day - something of a dinosaur where I come from.

[klintock]

Then perhaps you should make it clear that it is merely in your experience when you state:

I thought I had put IME in both sentences - my bad I do apologise.

I don't find them so. I was quite surprised to find an openly racist taxi-driver the other day - something of a dinosaur where I come from.

Key word for this thread is "openly".

[The_Grapes_of_Sloth]

Key word for this thread is "openly".

Ahhhh...you're a mind reader. That explains everything.

[klintock]

No. The point is that those who make the polls aren't mind readers and so the polls might be skewed because people won't give honest answers about voting tory.

The Conservatives are getting a bit of a bashing for being potentially racist or whatever, could this make people less likely to say they will vote for them when asked?

For once I was on topic. :p

[kevlar85]

I'm quite sceptical about the majority of polls, there's a lot of interesting stuff on the methodology out there and it really varies between pollsters depending on how certain people are to vote and whether it's a face-to-face, telephone or net poll.

So when I tend to just monitor two pollsters - MORI using the figures from those who say they are certain to vote and YouGov because it's an internet pollster and so respondents have no fear of offending a sampler.

YouGov gives Labour an average lead of 1.7% since the start of campaign and MORI's certain to vote figure (not including telephone polling for reasons I'll explain below) gives an average Labour lead of 2%.

The reason I don't include telephone polling is because firstly so many people are either on the Telephone Preference Service or out at work so can't be contacted. Also remember it was mainly telephone based polling that predicted a Kerry victory in the American elections...

I use all the polls together as a trend, and the trend is definitely towards Labour at the moment, they've been especially successful at getting those people who would be apathetic or vote for smaller parties back on side - or perhaps that was Michael Howard? :chin:

However, to see some polls at the moment predicting another landslide majority, I just can't believe it tbh. I reckon it'll be a Labour majority between 60-80 seats depending on how well the rest of the campaign goes for them. The evidence from the bookies seems to suggest the same thing.

[Rich Kid]

I'm pretty sure there are lots of conservatives out there, both big and small 'c', who are rather displeased if not completely appalled by Howard's campaign.
I would say there are plenty of very happy conservatives both big and small "c" out there who are pleased with Michael Howards performance - theres probably a lot of Labour supporters though who are searching their consciences about whether or not to support the Illegal Iraq War-monger, Phoney Blair - now theres a real dilema.


The effect such campaign is actually having is to make previously disenchanted Labour supporters change their minds about not voting for 'that bastard Blair' on this election. Because next to this Conservative Party, Blair looks like the dog's bollocks.
Vote for Phoney, let him go out on a high. He will probably crow on in his autobiography, which no doubt he'll start once he's left office, about his wonderful victory blah blah blah,
I think Howard displays integrity and comes across as a man of principle compared to that snake-oil saleman Blair.

So for every person Howard's 'war' on gypsies and immigrants wins over for the Tories, it'd seem two or three people will come out and vote for Labour in order to stop the Tories getting in.
Don't put words into Howards mouth lamp boy, he's never declared "war" on gypsies and immigrants. He accurately reflects the mood of most people in this country who want a government that tackles these issues that have been allowed to veer out of control under Labour.
We need our national borders protected, we need a controlled immigration policy, and we all need to be equal under the law, and that includes local planning laws.

[Blagsta]

More one line, dissmissive comments from Blagsta. I was talking from my own experience.

Would you like to go to the nearest factory canteen and listen in?

When was the last time you were in a factory canteen?

[budda]

When was the last time you were in a factory canteen?

And, even if all the people who work in factories are racist (which is a bazar claim) there arent all that many people who bloody work in them anymore.

[klintock]

Put credit where it's due RK you are as mad as a hatstand.

I think Howard displays integrity and comes across as a man of principle compared to that snake-oil saleman Blair.

Fantastic. Words fail me.

We need our national borders protected, we need a controlled immigration policy, and we all need to be equal under the law, and that includes local planning laws.

Weird. I need the law to fuck off and leave me alone. Who is the "we" you are on about here?

[klintock]

When was the last time you were in a factory canteen?

January.

And, even if all the people who work in factories are racist (which is a bazar claim) there arent all that many people who bloody work in them anymore.

Go down the dole office then.

[Blagsta]

January.

Which year? Where? What did people say?


Go down the dole office then.

:confused:

[CptCoatHanger]

Another thread that has decended into textual diarrhoea.

[Aladdin]

Don't put words into Howards mouth lamp boy, he's never declared "war" on gypsies and immigrants.
I do beg your pardon spoilt child. I never meant to offend your boss.

He accurately reflects the mood of most people in this country
Most people my arse.

[budda]

He accurately reflects the mood of most people in this country who want a government that tackles these issues that have been allowed to veer out of control under Labour..

Why isnt he in the lead then?

[Rich Kid]

I do beg your pardon spoilt child. I never meant to offend your boss.
I think you did, it was typical of the smear tactics you use. Smear, lies, and spin shall Labour make.

[Aladdin]

"Smear, lies and spin"... coming from the poster and the party who have consistently told lies about the state of the country (such as the NHS, immigration or the economy) non-stop.

Do tell us again how bad the NHS is RK... and then try to lecture us about "smear, lies and spin".

[Rich Kid]

Do tell us again how bad the NHS is RK... and then try to lecture us about "smear, lies and spin".
No real need to, everyone realises the parlous state its in due Labours simple yet ineffective solution - a problem, chuck some money at it, it may not solve the problem but at least we can point to the "investment" when the punters start to ask awkward questions.
I would like to applaud the frontline staff in the NHS they do a fine job under difficult circumstances and the wretched government targets.

Terrible to read today about a young mother (22) who suffered a miscarriage at Manchester Royal Infirmary and on leaving was handed her baby's body in a plastic bag.

Last year a 14yr old school-girl had been sent home after suffering a miscarriage at Bishop Auckland General Hospital with her baby in a specimen bottle.

You couldn't make these tragedies up, and we're not talking about a third world country, we're talking about Britain.

[Ibex]

Could be something in that. Sad to say the average factory worker is usually a racist, homophobic (although hating would be nearer the mark) and not that likely to be asked their opinion.

That is not my experience.

[Aladdin]

Sadly for your RK you have been consistently and comprehensively disproven about your gloomy claims regarding the NHS. And if you think that highlighting a couple (or even a couple of dozen) of bad cases in the last few years from an institution that deals with tens of millions of cases you are going to have to rethink your strategy, because no-one will buy it.

[budda]

Terrible to read today about a young mother (22) who suffered a miscarriage at Manchester Royal Infirmary and on leaving was handed her baby's body in a plastic bag.

Last year a 14yr old school-girl had been sent home after suffering a miscarriage at Bishop Auckland General Hospital with her baby in a specimen bottle.

I could ask for a source, but whats the point?

They sound like tragic cases, but as Aladdin rightly points out you can not generalise from two or even two hundred cases.

[CptCoatHanger]

Sadly for your RK you have been consistently and comprehensively disproven about your gloomy claims regarding the NHS. And if you think that highlighting a couple (or even a couple of dozen) of bad cases in the last few years from an institution that deals with tens of millions of cases you are going to have to rethink your strategy, because no-one will buy it.

Finally some sense.

Just because a paper tells you that someone was treated a certain way doesn't mean it's:

a) The gospel truth
b) Even a half truth
c) The way everyone gets treated

The mass media has an awful lot to answer.

[Rich Kid]

I'm certainly not trying to denigrate the whole of the NHS on the basis of these two sad stories, because sad stories they are.

Of course one issue we really know little of, although it does surface from time to time, is the question of "hidden" waiting lists - what is the truth about such lists? Are they being compiled for "political" reasons?

[budda]

Of course one issue we really know little of, although it does surface from time to time, is the question of "hidden" waiting lists - what is the truth about such lists? Are they being compiled for "political" reasons?

Well why dont you tell us what you know and we can go from there.